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Strategies & Market Trends : the times they are a-changin'

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To: marcos who started this subject	2/10/2002 10:26:48 AM
From: teevee	of 145

>What Stillwater's stock price foretells By: Tim Wood mips1.net Posted: 2002/02/08 Fri 20:00 \| © Miningweb 1997-2002 PRINCETON, NJ -- At least Stillwater still has a sense of humour. Its Web site declares that its "The program to…bring the new project, East Boulder, on-stream and up to capacity is scheduled to be completed in 2003." It may well be on schedule, but will it turn a profit? Once North America's white metals hope, Stillwater now looks in danger of fading into obscurity. The stock price rallied valiantly through December on the promise of a buyout or rescue package, but it has since cratered back to $15 where it seems to have found optimist support considering analyst price targets are lower still. The reason for the plunge is all too obvious. Stillwater reports results on Monday that will include an update on the East Boulder project or, more correctly, mishap. The update is likely to include a whopping write-down to adjust the carrying value of the project that is not going to turn a profit until palladium prices run steadily north of $500 an ounce. Stillwater's competitors are mostly thrilled by its troubles. They have no desire to surrender market share and have every intention of hanging Stillwater out to dry, preferably to shrivel up and vanish altogether. That was confirmed this week when Impala Platinum chief executive Keith Rumble said the ailing firm had been offered around without any interest. If Impala has no further interest, then original white knight Lonmin certainly won't bite and Anglo platinum is content to pile on the pressure by ramping up production. Stillwater may yet pull an unlikely rabbit from the hat in future, in which case it should be renamed Houdini.

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