All, Final Forecast,
As always, this is just my opinion, it is NOT investment advice, any readers make their own decisions and I accept no responsibility for for their decisions, which should not be based in any way on my opinions.
Looks like my colder, relative to normal, forecast for Jan/Feb is going, as they used to say in the markets a hundred years ago, where the woodbine twineth, up the spout.
In any case, too late to help energy stocks it appears, even if we have a colder Feb/March period when the degree days are summed for that period.
This is the first major forecast failure for my winter forecast systems since I began forecasting publicly in late 92. As I have always said I would cease forecasting if a major failure occured, so I will now take a sabbatical, at least, while I seek the causation of error. If I will be back for next winter forecast will depend on my success, there is no guarantee I will find what I need to be comfortable making a winter forecast again. Therefore it is possible that I will never make another winter forecast public.
I will make a few comments prior to leaving the forecast venue:
Since my system has not changed over the years, it could be the weather itself is undergoing some basic change OR a new cycle is commencing which is outside my experience.
Among my final forecast notes, the chance of a large late winter storm, similar to 93's "Perfect Storm", are high this year.
The odds of an cold late winter early spring breaking into a hot late spring are high this year.
But bear in mind, this is from a forecaster with a broken forecast system.
Though I enjoyed a high accuracy rate, I know better than to continue with a system once it fails to be accurate.
Best Regards,
Roebear |
