gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast: Feb 10. 02: Wave 4 or Wave 3 up?
I'm sure many of you are drooling over that late day rally we had on Friday...
But since the trend has been down for a month now, it's best to see how far this rally goes before jumping in and going nuts.
If I'm right about that ending diagonal, the move up this week should be strong and dramatic....
But it could have also been Wave 4 up, which would get to 1837 or 1858, than a Wave 5 down to around 1730-1743.
But if the NASDAQ rallies hard tomorrow over 1837/1858 with a big white candle, strong volume (over 2 billion shares), and closes at it's high, there's a good chance that this is the start of a good rally, if not "the" Wave 3.
If the NASDAQ rises to 1837/1858 and drops hard around 9:50-10AM (a lot of traders I know go with the "10AM" rule, if the NASDAQ makes a new high at 10AM and holds until 10:40-11AM, the chances are strong that the rally will continue and be pretty strong.)
One guy I follow on SI, mishedlo, is looking at max pain, and is looking at a potential rally on the QQQ's to 40, which would fit my count....the guy is pretty good, and doesn't get the credit he deserves, because he's pretty bearish all the time. Whenver expiration comes up, I always look at his posts..he also, like me, see puts heavily outweighing calls up to April, which would clear a path for a sustainable rally.
A lot of people are discussing the action of gold last week....most of them are bears who are looking at it as a pre-cursor to a large drop...but if you look at the XAU and compare it with the price action of the DOW, you'll see whenever gold bottoms and rallies, the DOW follows...I'm not real informed about it, but I spent a few hours researching it, and here's stuff I found:
Here's an article from last year that I found (important stuff is highlighted):
Something else has happened that makes me think we might be seeing the real thing. I've finally gotten the catalyst I've been looking for. A definitive breakout in gold.Yes, gold -- -- the monetary commodity that the great economist John Maynard Keynes called a "barbaric relic."
..... we would know when the bottom had arrived the same way we did in August of 1982 -- the last time the stock market recovered from a deflationary spiral. The "tell" would be that the price of gold would bottom out and begin to rally. That's because gold is the most sensitive indicator of the market's demands for liquidity. When gold starts to rise off its 22-year lows, the markets are getting the liquidity they need and the deflationary spiral is ending. "The markets know more than the economists. And when the Fed finally turns this deflation around, gold will tell us."Gold is telling us now. .... gold was establishing a bottoming pattern, and a mild uptrend. And I reported last week that gold had broken out of its severe long-term downtrend. I was worried that last week's breakout might just be a technical effect arising from the insolvency of Australia's Centaur Mining and Exploration, Ltd., and that when that effect subsided, and the Bank of England's bimonthly gold auction kicked
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