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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 268.72+1.3%Dec 3 3:59 PM EST
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60224)2/11/2002 12:20:17 PM
From: runes  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Jacob - your post on Japan actually scares me more -

In my experience problems that hang around forever are the most dangerous kind. They tend to breed a complacency and indifference that leaves us unprotected when the other shoe finally does drop.

Case in point - the dot com bubble which has rippled through our markets for the last couple years. Everyone knew early on that things were being done to excess. But as time went on we became complacent. The end result was that, when the bubble burst, it rippled through the techs in far greater magnitude than anyone expected. (NAS 5000 to NAS 1600). (With the exception of Gail Dudak(sp?) who was booted off of WSW by Rukeyser for being a die hard bear.)

That being said - I agree that the most likely outcome for Japan in the near term is more of the same anemia. But that doesn't mean that the underlying problem should be ignored or dismissed as manageable. It only takes one or two economic blunders to start a financial avalanche. And with a weakened world economy, such an avalanche could easily propagate worldwide.

And the world is increasingly telling Japan that it is their problem, they should fix it on their own. (When Bush Jr visits I doubt that he will even go so far as to toss his cookies on the prime minister ;-). And that, IMO, is what makes the situation so dangerous. Not a crises (yet) but well worth a wary eye.
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