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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 241.68+0.6%Dec 26 4:00 PM EST
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To: jghutchison who wrote (11809)2/11/2002 2:29:16 PM
From: Wayners  Read Replies (2) of 12623
 
Jack,

Thats exactly right. The fiber "glut" for those that don't kknow is attibuted only to long haul core (backbone, transport i.e long distance domestic terrestrial and submarine). Most large cities are interconnected. The rest of our cities remained unwired. Outside the U.S. large parts of the world remain unwired including eastern europe, asia, and latin america. GLW produces 40% of all optical cable. Metro area networks are being used at 60% capacity. Metro networks and enterprise networks will still require growth. 12 U.S. cities are at full capacity already. And when telcom companies do start wiring these other areas, they will install lots and lots of cable--why? because excavations are costly and cable is cheap making more sense to put in a lot of extra cable now rather than intalling it later requireing additional excavation. This additional cable out there in the long haul market is the huge amount of dark unused fiber that eveybody is concerned about and is used to characterize a global glut when in fact this only represents a portion of the global market. I believe the revenues will flatten and turn up catching a lot of people, especially analysts off guard. Might be prudent to wait for a flattening in declining revenues or a slight turn up before jumping on board
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