Hi Ice: re: One Way Streets
I think you may not give yourself enough credit:
<...relying on technical analysis is the only way I can
reasonably deal with the market...>
It is indeed one tool available to you, but not a
complete method that should exclude Gottfried's very
good 'buy-and-hold' suggestion. From our SF visit, you may recall
my Nice Systems (NASD:NICEY) tale in which I made a good profit yet
missed an additional 22% due to impatience. 'Nicey' does not have
enough history that TA could have predicted this rationally (nor
has it really fallen, the 22% I missed will turn into 30% Monday).
My point is 'finding the niche'. Nice, I knew, is a great niche
because I only pick good stocks, of course =). Just TA'ing a
bunch of stocks for profit may lead to some gains, but it's
an awful lot of work. Instead, focus most of your energy finding a
niche and use TA to figure out where you might want to buy it at
(and sell if needed). Once you find that niche, though, you'll
probably be holding onto it as I should have with Nice.
Finding the niches? Break things down. IOM is officially part of
the storage industry. But they don't sell 'just another' drive,
not like Seagate or Quantum. You would need Gottfried's experience
to know the sector well enough to pick between SEG or QNTM for the
most profit. Mind you, both could be profitable, but it's a harder
choice for us as you and I haven't been immersed in that sector.
So pick the player that really is doing something new related to
that market - IOM. It's mass-consumer oriented like Coke with the
cool removable twist. Then use TA to get in. Hold. Sell only if
TA really says that you absolutely must.
My own Adaptec experience is sort of the same. Their niche is that
they own their market. And I knew I didn't want to buy at
$40, so I didn't. My original buy was for $32 and I'd be in better
shape had I stuck with it. Impatience and emotion got the best of
me, as it does with most investors, and I got in slightly worse at
$35. But the $3 doesn't matter because this company is doing the
right things today to ensure their dominance. Why did $40 matter?
Dunno! Just didn't want to - rational analysis =) I've never
purchased a $40 stock - but I've sold some. =)
FA is only a tool, TA is only a tool, you must make your own
method, and have some faith in your own 'niche' decisions
-MrB |
