What does anyone make of this? Isopatch on gold
From: isopatch
SWC trying to confirm completion of a bottom Rolled some $$ from gold gains into initial position @ 14.54 day before yesterday.
Enjoying the party. Major vindication for those of us who forecasted major move in the PM stocks right at the start of this major Intermediate Term rally.
Message 16724991
<Gold Alert. IMPORTANT Development.
Gold prices did some backing and filling today. However, lease were rates up across the board, AGAIN. This in itself is very bullish, being the latest in a multi-week series of consecutive rate hikes.
BUT here's the kicker!
Look at the charts for the various lease maturities just below the numerical values on the left side of the Kitco page referenced below. Rates on the shortest term leases are suddenly backing up more rapidly the long dated
maturities.
kitco.com
Folks, I think something VERY VERY important is happening.
What, not long ago, was a nice classic upward sloping yield curve has flattened considerably in a just a few weeks with the near dated month getting closer and closer to inverting.
In general economic parlance, major changes in the slope of the yield curve always signal important economic changes are approaching. The transition - from the normal upward slope as we move out the maturity spectrum - into a flat to inverted curve indicates a shortage of credit and/or goods & services which typically compels a drop in the level of activity conducted via that borrowing. In this case, gold leasing. What a shame<G>
But what ho? It's certainly not a shortage of credit. The Fed's been flooding the system with liquidity. In fact, in recent days, Treasury yields have been driven even lower as nervous money heads for the "preceived" safe haven of US Gov paper.
So, there's really only one other explanation. What we're seeing are the 1st indications of a shortage of physical gold to lease. In other words, the last great stash available to anti-gold manipulators - the IMF gold hoard - is perhaps only weeks away from running out. My guess is 4 to 8 weeks MAXIMUM, probably less.
Please fasten your seat belts, place your trays in the upright position and be sure to enjoy your flight with Elvis - Gold Dog - Airways"
Isopatch>
AND posted to you, George, a few days later
Message 16731672
<George. Those are reasonable expectations.
Am somewhat more bullish. But not wildly so.
Think we will blow through $300 this time, then run a bit. No target for the high - as usual.<g> But do think $290-95 will likely establish itself as the new support in the next 60 - 90 days.
All just fuzzy logic, hopefully educated guessing and instinct. No guarantee.
What I am certain of since the beginning of the week was that we've begun a very powerful rally - AT LEAST comparable to the April/May run.
Regards,
Isopatch>
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