What we do not know is what month those were, nor do we know if the volume was closing or opening.
All we know is the damn ratio. Nearly useless.
If all the equity puts or index puts were for March, (or better yet June), the criminals could care less what the P/C ratio is today.
After watching this for some time, I have concluded that it is meaningless (as a CURRENT indicator BY ITSELF).
To know the "score" one must look at, and concentrate on current month options first, then look ahead to see if a picture can form.
Oddly enough, I see tons of puts in March.
And as of right now, I see max pain at QQQ 37 1/2 for Feb.
Thus we rallied on Friday and today.
No real buying today. Light volume.
J6P is scared shitless and probably ought to be (but not scared enough to sell, just scared enough to not buy).
With all the PUTs in March (I see max pain for the QQQ for March at about 40, I am trying to figure out how we get there with no volume.
After expiry, panic induced selloff, then sharp rally perhaps. Right now, I have no firm conviction as to how we get there, but it seems like we headed for QQQ 40 in March.
Can AMAT induce a panic selloff to QQQ 32 from which we rally to QQQ 40, or does delta hedging kick in and we just collapse after this expiry.
If the latter, we could retest that "bottom" sooner than most people think.
Comments appreciated.
M |
