Kurlack's "table-pounders" v. panhandler's picks - AMAZING STUDY!? Redux
You're getting ready for the 4th. Your mind should be on the
coming weekend - steaks on the coals of the bbq, co-eds on the
sands of the Jersey Shore, an original first edition of Mailer's
"The Naked and the Dead" on your lap (at $4.95 in a small used-
book store - go figure). There's just no way you're thinking "I
wonder how Tom Kurlack's top three recommendations on that
conference call to over 600 institutional investors back on May
7th have done to date, versus what people with no investment
experience whatsoever would have recommended?"
And yet you are. And what you find, you find puzzling.
The methodology - Print out the $SOX in alphabetical order by
symbol. Keep it in your pocket throughout the day. Approach four
random people, explain you're doing a very informal study, and
say: "Here are 16 stocks in the semiconductor sector. I'd like
you to pick three. You can ask me what they do and I'll give you
a general description or you can just pick three at random. No
I'm not trying to sell you anything."
The constestants:
George - cashier at corner deli - no investment experience
Charles - guy renting videos - no investment experience
Tony - panhandler in front of convenience store - no investment
experience
Ray - security guard - no investment experience
George (disclaimer: I know George) and Ray asked what they did (example - Applied Materials -
they make equipment used in semiconductor production). Charles
and Ray didn't. I'm assuming that TK knows what they do.
Let's run the numbers assuming $100,000 was invested equally
across each basket (begin = close @ 5/6):
begin end shrs. gross in out-1 comm. out-2 net %
TK - influential semiconductor analyst
MU 38 1/2 40 3/50 865.8008658 33333.33 34683.98 -39.9 34644.08 1310.75 3.93%
INTC 158 144 15/16 210.9704641 33333.33 30577.53 -39.9 30537.63 -2795.7 -8.39%
TXN 92 87 7/8 362.3188406 33333.33 31838.77 -39.9 31798.87 -1534.5 -4.60%
total 100000 97100.28 96980.58 -3019.4 -3.02%
George - cashier at corner deli
AMAT 59 3/4 77 7/16 557.8800558 33333.33 43200.84 -39.9 43160.94 9827.61 29.48%
INTC 158 144 15/16 210.9704641 33333.33 30577.53 -39.9 30537.63 -2795.7 -8.39%
VLSI 22 1/2 24 5/8 1481.481481 33333.33 36481.48 -39.9 36441.58 3108.25 9.32%
100000 110259.85 110140.1 10140.2 10.14%
Charles - renter at video store
ADI 26 1/2 27 3/8 1257.861635 33333.33 34433.96 -39.9 34394.06 1060.73 3.18%
MOT 61 80 7/16 546.4480874 33333.33 43954.92 -39.9 43915.02 10581.7 31.75%
XLNX 52 13/16 47 7/8 631.1637081 33333.33 30216.96 -39.9 30177.06 -3156.3 -9.47%
100000 108605.84 108486.1 8486.15 8.49%
Tony - panhandler in front of convenience store
AMAT 59 3/4 77 7/16 557.8800558 33333.33 43200.84 -39.9 43160.94 9827.61 29.48%
LSI 40 7/8 31 5/8 815.4943935 33333.33 25790.01 -39.9 25750.11 -7583.2 -22.75%
TXN 92 87 7/8 362.3188406 33333.33 31838.77 -39.9 31798.87 -1534.5 -4.60%
100000 100829.62 100709.9 709.925 0.71%
Ray - security guard
AMAT 59 3/4 77 7/16 557.8800558 33333.33 43200.84 -39.9 43160.94 9827.61 29.48%
NVLS 77 89 5/8 432.9004329 33333.33 38798.70 -39.9 38758.8 5425.47 16.28%
TER 34 7/8 43 7/8 955.7945042 33333.33 41935.48 -39.9 41895.58 8562.25 25.69%
100000 123935.02 123815.3 23815.3 23.82%
non-table-pounders
AMAT 59 3/4 77 7/16 128.7415513 7692.308 9969.42 -39.9 9929.524 2237.22 29.08%
VLSI 22 1/2 24 5/8 341.8803419 7692.308 8418.80 -39.9 8378.903 686.603 8.93%
TER 34 7/8 43 7/8 220.5679625 7692.308 9677.42 -39.9 9637.519 1945.22 25.29%
MOT 61 80 7/16 126.1034048 7692.308 10143.44 -39.9 10103.54 2411.24 31.35%
NVLS 77 89 5/8 99.9000999 7692.308 8953.55 -39.9 8913.646 1221.35 15.88%
LSCC 58 57 132.6259947 7692.308 7559.68 -39.9 7519.782 -172.52 -2.24%
ADI 26 1/2 27 3/8 290.275762 7692.308 7946.30 -39.9 7906.399 214.099 2.78%
LLTC 53 1/8 52 15/16 144.7963801 7692.308 7665.16 -39.9 7625.258 -67.042 -0.87%
NSM 25 3/4 31 1/8 298.7303958 7692.308 9297.98 -39.9 9258.084 1565.78 20.36%
LRCX 36 1/8 40 3/8 212.9358531 7692.308 8597.29 -39.9 8557.385 865.085 11.25%
XLNX 52 13/16 47 7/8 145.6531634 7692.308 6973.15 -39.9 6933.245 -759.05 -9.87%
LSI 40 7/8 31 5/8 188.1910139 7692.308 5951.54 -39.9 5911.641 -1780.7 -23.15%
AMD 42 7/8 35 15/16 179.4124243 7692.308 6447.63 -39.9 6407.734 -1284.6 -16.70%
total 100000 107601.36 107082.7 7082.76 7.08%
And the winners are:
Ray +23.82%
George +10.14%
Charles +8.90%
non-TK +7.10%
Tony +0.71%
TK -3.02%
So despite the conventional wisdom, if on 5/7 you blew-off TK and just went out and bought a soda and asked the guy at the counter for 3 chips stocks - you might have beaten TK to date...
or, if on 5/7 you blew-off TK and rented "That Obscure Object of Desire" and asked the guy next to you for 3 chip stocks - you might have beaten TK to date...
or, if on 5/7 you blew-off TK and bought "The Hockey News" at a convenience store and asked the guy asking for change out in front for 3 chip stocks - you might have beaten TK to date...
or, if on 5/7 you blew-off TK and hit an ATM machine and asked the security guard in the lobby for 3 chips stocks - you might have beaten TK to date.
And yet everyone still wets their pants when this guy flaps his gums.
Good trading,
Tom |
