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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 215.11+0.1%Dec 24 12:59 PM EST
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To: Mani1 who started this subject2/12/2002 1:45:25 PM
From: andreas_wonischRead Replies (7) of 275872
 
AMD mid-quarter ASP analysis

Thread, here is my first AMD ASP analysis based on the Pricewatch data by JC (many thanks to him). For those of you that are too lazy to read through all that text below here's the most important chart (overall ASPs calculated by my model discussed below):

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/asps_tot.gif

All data is from Pricewatch and there aren't any fancy calculation tricks going on. For the past quarter my model is only 2$ off for the ASPs reported. But keep in mind that the Pricewatch data might not be realistic for the overall market and that there are other contributing factors that could change the overall picture. Everyone should keep this in mind when looking at the charts. Of course I don't claim any responsibility for any investing decisions based on this.

Okay, back to the analysis and explanation: My model is based on three different categories (High End = Athlon XP, Mid End = Athlon, Low End = Duron) and considers the sixth fastest processors of the specific category (if there are six different processors available). This should be consistent with the processor range AMD sells to its distributors. The price for each category is taken by the lowest price reported on Pricewatch. Availability is the number of Pricewatch entries. I've also taken the official pricing data from AMD's pricelist to see the difference between official and real pricing. The ASPs calculations are very easy: The formula is price multiplied with availability divided by total availability. The calculations and graphs are done via Excel. They are in German but should be understandable.

Okay, let's have a look at the first category -- Athlon XP's. This graphs shows the price development for the fastest, 2nd fastest, 3rd fastest etc. XP:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/preis_he.gif

As you can see the price usually bumps up when a new speed grade is introduced but then gradually declines to about 30% of list price. The discount for the XP2000+ seems a little bit steep but it's price is still higher than the XP1900+ throughout the 4th quarter.

In this chart you can see the discount development over time:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/aufpreis_he.gif

It seems to have stabilized in the last few weeks.

And now let's get to the meat -- the Athlon XP ASPs:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/asps_he.gif

As you can see the ASPs gradually improved during Q4 and in the first two weeks of Q2 to over $150. After the price drop in January they declined quickly to about $140 but stabilized and recovered in the last few weeks. Still, there are somewhat lower than throughout most of Q4 right now. But this development isn't too bad when you consider this chart:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/verfueg_tot_he.gif

Here you can see the total availability for Athlon XPs. It really exploded during early Q4 and got even higher at the beginning of the current quarter. Volumes have more than tripled in the last three months. If you want a breakdown for the different XP models look at this chart:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/verfueg_he.gif

The good news is that both the fastest (Athlon XP 2000+) and 2nd fastest (XP 1900+) are rapidly increasing in availability. The sweet spot seems to be at the 3rd fastest speed grade (XP 1800+). During most of Q4 it was the XP 1600+ so bin splits seems to have been improved then.

Okay, let's look (a little bit less detailed) at Athlons and Durons now. First let's have a look at Athlon ASPs:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/asps_me.gif

They are pretty much flat with a slight downtrend. But since volumes are gradually declining their (negative) effect on ASPs is getting smaller:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/verfueg_tot_me.gif

So availability is only half as much as one quarter ago. Since AMD has already stopped producing Athlon (and is probably only selling inventory right now) this isn't too surprising.

Okay, the Durons now. Surprisingly ASPs are very encouraging there with a new record set just this week:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/asps_le.gif

The richer mix of high-speed Duron parts (1.1 GHz and above) contributed to the rising ASPs, reaching $50 for the first time. But interesting enough even the lower clocking Durons have been rising in price somewhat in the last week. What about availability? It's also declining although that trend seems to have bottomed about three or four weeks ago:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/verfueg_tot_le.gif

The Athlons might have replaced some Durons at the lower end but now the Durons seem to creep back.

Now that we have discussed all three categories let's look at the overall picture. This charts show the overall ASPs determined by the price of each of the three categories multiplied by availability divided by total availability:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/asps_tot.gif

Since this data only considers desktop parts (that's the blue line) I've also included about 10% mobile parts with somewhat higher ASPs based on the data from the last CC (this is the -- somewhat speculative -- blue line). But even if we only use the Pricewatch data we get a very clear trend: ASPs have been rising for some time and still are. They even have surpassed $100 for the first time. Most of it can be contributed to the richer Athlon XP mix as witnessed in this chart:

bielefeld.netsurf.de:8080/~a_wonisch/amd/verfueg_all.gif

Here we can see that Athlon XPs now consist of more than 50% of the total volume with Athlons and Durons taking up the rest. This might be somewhat unrealistic since AMD is probably still selling lots of Durons outside the US (e.g. Asia) but it should be what to expect from the DIY (and probably also US) market.

Bottom line: Athlon XP ASPs have stabilized and availability is still ramping up very fast, Duron ASPs are rising and overall ASPs look very good. Judging from this data I expect AMD to hold or surpass the ASPs of the last quarter. Of course, overall volumes can't be determined from the Pricewatch data so it remains to be seen how many CPUs AMD can actually ship at these prices. But overall I've been very surprised by my own charts; I'd expected a less rosy ASP picture.

I'd like to thank Patrick and JC for their helpful contributions (ideas and data) and will probably soon extend this analysis to Intel CPUs as well. If there's interest I can report the results from time to time on this thread. Any suggestions or reports on errors are welcome.

Andreas
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