Guree, Kaplan is not a contrarian. He's serious about what he says.
I'm saying one has to take the opposite view from his. These are his forecasts right up the bull market, last year:
Monday, December 24, 2001: The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has risen from MODERATELY BEARISH to SLIGHTLY BEARISH, as the pivot price for gold has risen from $271 to $276 spot, while gold commercials remain highly responsive to modest moves in either direction, and currency commercials are generally short those currencies which correlate significantly with the gold price.
Monday, December 24, 2001: The traders’ commitments indicator for gold has improved from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH.
Monday, October 29, 2001: The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as the traders' commitments have noticeably improved, though still show commercials markedly net short.
Monday, October 29, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as commercials are more aggressively covering their short positions on all dips in the gold price.
Tuesday, October 23, 2001: The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has improved from STRONGLY BEARISH/VERY STRONGLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as the gold price has dropped substantially.
Tuesday, October 23, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has improved from VERY STRONGLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as commercials grudgingly, but steadily, are covering their net short positions on all price declines.
Monday, October 1, 2001: The overall outlook for gold mining shares remains STRONGLY BEARISH. As the yellow metal has outpaced the prices of producers' shares, the outlook for gold and gold collectibles has deteriorated to VERY STRONGLY BEARISH. Commercials may be temporarily somewhat wrong, but time nearly always shows them to be right.
Monday, October 1, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has dropped from STRONGLY BEARISH to VERY STRONGLY BEARISH, as commercials continue to sell aggressively short even into modest rallies in the gold price, while the ratio of total commercials short to total commercials long is at a dangerously high level.
Friday, August 17, 2001: The overall outlook for gold and its shares has fallen like a rock from SLIGHTLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH. Commercials have been unusually aggressive in shorting gold into the recent rally, which bodes poorly for the near future for the yellow metal.
Friday, August 17, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has collapsed from SLIGHTLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH, with commercials adding aggressively and continuously to their short positions as the price of gold has moved higher.
Monday, August 6, 2001: The overall current outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has improved from MODERATELY BEARISH to SLIGHTLY BEARISH, as commercials now eagerly go long about six thousand contracts for each one-dollar drop in the gold price.
Monday, August 6, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has improved from MODERATELY BEARISH to SLIGHTLY BEARISH, as commercials have reduced their net short position substantially as the price of gold declined.
Monday, August 6, 2001: The insider stock transaction activity has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as insider selling seems to have abated after the middle of July.
Monday, July 9, 2001: The overall current outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as commercials continue to modestly reduce their net short position as the price of gold declines.
Monday, July 9, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as commercials have reduced their net short position as the price of gold declined.
Monday, June 18, 2001: The overall current outlook for gold mining shares has improved from STRONGLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, reflecting the price drop from the recent highs, as well as a noticeable recent improvement in gold's traders' commitments. Insider selling near the recent XAU peak serves as a warning that this level is unlikely to be achieved again in the near future, and that investors should avoid gold mining shares at this time.
Monday, June 18, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has improved substantially from VERY STRONGLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as commercials have cut their net short position by roughly half, with their recent covering occurring even in the face of a modest rally in the gold price, which is especially notable.
Monday, June 18, 2001: The insider stock transaction activity has plunged from MODESTLY BULLISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as insider selling has picked up, especially with blue-chip gold mining shares such as Homestake and Newmont, which often serve as bellwethers for the direction of gold and gold share prices. Some of these companies have not seen insider selling for many months, so this information cannot be lightly disregarded.
Friday, May 25, 2001: The overall current outlook for gold mining shares has dropped once again from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH, as commercials went very lopsidedly net short into the recent gold rally. These same commercials were heavy buyers below $260, when it was certainly an excellent time to buy, and they have an impeccable track record, so only a fool would bet against them.
Friday, May 25, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has slumped from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to VERY STRONGLY BEARISH, as commercials established a net short position of 65,250 COMEX gold contracts.
Thursday, May 24, 2001: The overall current outlook for gold mining shares has dropped sharply from SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as commercials were eager to go substantially net short even with gold below $270, and given their historical predilection to selling more as the price rises, are likely to be enormously net short at the present time. It makes no sense to be long when commercials are heavily net short.
Thursday, May 24, 2001: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has dropped from SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as commercials went almost 14 thousand contracts net short when spot gold was at $268. |
