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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 155.82-1.3%Jan 23 9:30 AM EST
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To: qveauriche who wrote (113100)2/12/2002 6:43:24 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
qveau,

don't be misled by recession productivity numbers. they often go up because cos lay off tons of people. if your percentage decline in employees is greater than the percentage decline in revenue, "worker productivity" goes up. simple math!

as to a belief that the market could go nowhere for more than a decade being "demented", go look at what people were saying in 1930 in the US and in 1991 in Japan. anything can happen!

as to the analysts--they are a joke. their estimates are total garbage, and they are way too high. look at how far they have come down! and they are still too high, AND they are based on crappy pro forma numbers.

here's a little factoid for you: Barron's recently (and quietly) switched their S&P500 PE figures from reported earnings to "operating earnings", thereby lowering the SPX PE from 40 to 29. as long as it helps stocks look cheap...kewl! who knew that math could improve the economy so much.

the market remains obscenely overvalued imho. i would not at all be surprised for the US large caps to have a negative real return for the next decade at least.

if you think it can't happen...take a look at the charts from 66 to 82. market went nowhere in nominal terms for that period, and sunk tremendously in real terms due to high inflation. hopefully inflation will stay low this time so the real returns will not be as bad as during that period.
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