Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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From: Larry Livingston	2/12/2002 9:19:46 PM
	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I fail to see what all the optimism is about. AMAT missed on revenue guidance 1 Billion vs. expected 1.05 Billion. And for those of you who are getting excited about the new orders number 1.12 Billion vs. last quarter's 1.1 Billion all you have to do is see that last quarter's new orders were never met as revenues came up short by .12 billion. There is no guarantee that these new orders are solid in fact it's likely that like last quarter a percentage will disappear. Then when you compare this quarters revenue of $1 billion it's sequentially down 21% from the 4th quarter's $1.26 billion and down 58% from last year's first quarter's $2.36 billion. What you're buying into is management's hope that there will be a pick up sometime six month's to a year from now. Pure hope as they are not giving guidance beyond the next quarter and that's flat to down from $1 billion. If they don't make a billion they don't turn a profit. Buyer beware, this stock's price is already factoring in a massive recovery. Even if the upgrade cycle happens it will not be anything like the past and current price is steep. If management really is expecting a turnaround they wouldn't be shuttering plants and laying people off, they would be getting ready for a ramp. The conference call was just as optimistic as they've always been with no foundation in reality. Buy at your own risk.

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