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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc
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To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (8728)2/12/2002 9:32:54 PM
From: Montana Wildhack   of 14101
 
Recap of the hard nut.

More DD on my part would have prepared me more for the
challenges of Europe. Only 5 countries agreed to pay
for it although I believe quite a few agreed it could be
sold without reimbursement. I knew there were quite a
few topicals on the market and their overall perception
was that they didn't work well. I overestimated both
the success rate and the probable sales penetration rate.

In the first 8 months ater launch Pennsaid has only provided
$1.497 million (to Nov 30) from UK activity.

Canada showed itself back in Sept 2000 asking for phase III
data after approving a phase IV on thousands of patients.
This was a huge clue. When Rebecca went on ROBTV to talk
to the situation her legal knowledge made her continue to
site the Globe and Mail article. However she challenged
publicly that one issue was labelling and the other
questions were within the submission. Thats strong stuff
from a lawyer and I believe is why ROBTV cast it again the
next day in prime time.

The FDA from all my reading is the most serious and most
capable of the bunch. In my opinion that second phase III
was given to them and included in the submission. That
was in October 2000 and I believe an inspection had been
scheduled for September 2001 (under the HC public timeline)
which was cancelled in the September turmoil. It was
re-scheduled quickly and completed as scheduled. I also
think I understand some of the reasons we took longer than
some going through the process. Manufacturing changes are
an example.

I believe we will pass that inspection first time because
both parties are serious and capable. Its not critical
from a cash position - but is important in re-establishing
a forward moving story.

I believe J&J is serious as well. Opportunity is greater
than it was 2 years ago and the market size speaks for
itself.

While the profile of DMX hasn't changed much (struggling
small research company 1. trying to get to market and 2.
trying to create revenue and profitablility) the opportunity
and threat has changed in my mind.

This is now a US play in Pennsaid with a newly powerful
possibility in owning WF10 and bringing that to market in
the US.

The volitility this year should be huge. I see more of
those long candles both black and red ahead and don't think
for a second we've seen the biggest one this year.

The hard nut is do we pass the FDA inspection moving on
to much bigger things, triggering the J&J deal and enough
of its cash to move forward on the OXO front - or are we
incapable of passing after numerous tries to fix the
identified deficiencies and circle in the backwaters of
more placements, lower prices, and less opportunity.

One more medium placement could see DMX through 2002.

Like it or not success or failure will be decided in 2002.

Good luck everyone.

Wolf
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