gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast Feb 13, 02
The past couple days has been pretty odd..
Market moves up, people buying the dips, market closes at the high...sounds like bullish action right? But where's the volume confirmation?
These are all good things, but somehow the volume just isn't confirming things.
Today was a really good example....market drops on a big gap down, and than rallies up on 5 waves, goes green, looks good..... but on pretty anemic volume. Than at exactly 3:00, when the NASDAQ goes green, a sudden and violent drop, and closes red with a pretty indecisive doji candle. Pretty frustrating action....what compounded things for me was the fact Yahoo's volume figures on the NASDAQ weren't updated all day until 3PM, and neither was Briefing.com.
Than to make things more odd, when the market ends sloppy like this, you'd expect companies to get wacked on earnings...but it doesn't happen...AMAT drops hard than rallies up, NTAP rallies 8% after hours, and OVER is up 4% after hours.
This honestly is looking more and more like a weakening downtrend, but still not an obvious upwave. We're in a very very indecisive point in the market...and the volume shows it......even though the indexes dropped, the DOW's MACD actually turned positive for the first time in a while, and the NASDAQ's is creeping up.
I'm not ready to go out shorting a 5th wave down, because the move down could truncate.....but we need to see a high volume breakout on the upside or downside, because the indecision by investors is making this market almost untradeable.
The first move tomorrow should give a more clear indication..
The bears are looking at the move down yesterday as wave 1....than a retracement to 1845-1848, and a forceful Wave 3 downwave....but if the pop tomorrow breaks 1845/1848 and holds after 10-11AM, and volume increases, that would be a foreceful Wave 3 upwave.....
I have a feeling tomorrow should have a pretty forceful wave 3 type move up or down...because investors are feeling pretty indecisive about jumping in right now.
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