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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 327.03+2.5%3:59 PM EST
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60452)2/13/2002 3:20:07 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Jacob,

Of the 5 potential triggers of an Oct 2001 retest that you identified, you seem to have dismissed all except for the exogenous shock of war with Iraq and valuations. Given that Bagdad was once the flower of Islamic civilization and that it will be extremely difficult to get moderate Muslim regimes on board such a coalition absent some act as daring or more so than 911, what probability would you really ascribe to the Iraq war scenario within the next 12 months?

I think that your valuation concerns are a much more likely inhibitor of market gains.

Sam
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