Pete,
but you seem to be the typical convert! I have seen the light and LTB&H is no longer a valid investment strategy
be sure to keep the salt shaker close by when you read my posts--i have seen the light so many times it's like living in a strobe chamber-g-.
I also remember when you sold QCOM and purchased JDSU. That was a good move, but JDSU didn't exactly meet your current valuation models
well, it was SDLI to be precise, but surely they were no value stock. that stock, and QCOM, and some other, much, much schlockier stocks, were before i got into value investing.
Bottom line is you can beat the market, you've done it , Art's done it, hell I'm even ahead of the game
well, the issue for me is, whatever let one beat the market before is not sure to do it again. so what are one's chances, ex ante, of beating the market? for market participants on the whole, they are obviously going to underperform the market (because they are the market, after fees). the second question is, does one need to beat the market (i.e., take excess risks in hopes of a better return)? obviously, each person can have different answers.
I agree that you shouldn't fall in love with a stock, but you shouldn't fall in love with a theory either
look, everybody's got a theory, only they might not articulate it. but if they are doing something, there must be a theory behind it. i spend a lot of time spouting off about historical stuff, so people think i'm trapped in a theory, but i'm not. it's more like being a guest at somebody's house and making sure to say what a nice house it is. but there's always the feeling one will move on again some day.
If you believe history will repeat itself the next bubble is on its way.
well, don't you think the Japanese are due a bubble before we are? i mean, they've been waiting for more than a decade for their bear market to end and stock prices hit 17yr lows recently. their market seems to be much closer to a historical bottom than ours, imho. |
