You may be right.
You may be wrong.
Everyone remembers how AMAT was a 10-bagger in the last upcycle, and nobody wants to be left behind when the train leaves the station next time. With so much BuyTheDip money out there, the dip doesn't happen. At least, not to the usual trough valuation levels. At least, not so far.
Do you know how much cash is sitting on the sidelines, waiting till it's "safe" to be back in stocks, back in Growth, back in AMAT? Trillions.
I can't argue with your statement, "valuations are ludicrous". In fact, I said the same thing, today, while posting the series of prices at which I'll sell my long position in AMAT (50,55,60,65).
But you're simply filtering out data that doesn't support your position, if you think "the news in semi land is awful", or "the economy sucks". I've listened to several conference calls of semis and other techs, this last earnings season. They are all saying: "we've seen the trough, for sales, margins, and profits." Caveat: they didn't say how steep the slope of the upturn would be.
Got a stop-loss, in case you're wrong? In case ludicrous prices get more ludicrous? |
