Caxton:
Longer term (within three months), we should see a breakout of the BIG downtrend line which currently resides around the low fifties. If qcom can break that, then things might start channeling up for the first time in 2 years.
It's that BIG downtrend line that's been bothering me for a while. It's a declining wedge (or maybe it's called a declining triangle), and while the upper line is presently in the low $50's, the lower line is in the low $30's, that we almost reached last Friday. We've been bouncing around inside this declining wedge for two years now, and the two lines eventually converge in the low $20's in October, when presumably something significant will happen one way or the other - maybe we will all disappear into a black hole at the singularity!
So, wait and see if we get an upside breakout from this short term downtrend, and if not, sell all and buy back twice as much in October in the low $20's when we hit the end of the wedge? Or say the heck with this, sell all now, and then get left behind when the darned thing makes fools of us and breaks out anyway? Guess I'll personally wait and see what happens as we approach the 20 DMA at around $43 early next week. If we do, short term traders may give us a bit more of a leg up.
Longer term, the driver will be the increasing revenues/earnings from 1x, China, India WLL, the beginnings of UMTS roll outs, etc. It could well take until the Q4 earnings at the end of October for this trend to become evident, and anything could happen in between.
JMO.
David T. |
