Long-dated USD.
I looked at some long-dated c 30yr charts of USDJPY and GBPUSD and another I think USDCHF.
The conclusion I came to was that the dollar had had a massive rally from 95 but it had been even higher before.
I think it was around 1985 or so.
The daily charts (1yr - 2yr) do look peaky for USD, but the monthly is still bullish.
The dollar bull will end (one day), but a 10-15% loss in the dollar $USD over the next 1 yr or so does not really change the bullish monthly chart. You would need a panic sell-off (or Nasdaq like fall) in the $USD to turn the monthly bearish.
In fact, I would say that if ever the $USD gets o/sold in weekly it would be a buy as the monthly charts are supportive (21 period EMA is upward sloping).
With Germany having bodged the EU stability pact, $XEU could be forming some sort of descending/symmetric triangle which 'favours' trend-continuation to the downside.
Stranger things have happened.
$USD Monthly:
stockcharts.com[g,a]maclyyay[pd21,2][vc60][iLp13,3,3]
$USD Weekly:
stockcharts.com[g,a]waclyyay[pd21,2][vc60][iLp13,3,3]
$XEU Weekly:
stockcharts.com[g,a]waclyyay[pd21,2][vc60][iLp13,3,3]&pref=G
-macavity |
