Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk

SOXL 43.75

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Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: da_cheif™ who wrote (949)	2/13/2002 10:55:03 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 206820

The CFZers nicely let me back onto their thread. If I just looked at NDX I might think we are in wave 4 of the decline since 6 December. The problem with this is the composite makes a new high on 9 January. If we want to apply the same count to both indices in broad outline, then 9 Jan must be a B wave and I believe the decline is over and we are in wave 3 up (since 21 Sep). My chart with a leading diagonal possibly and then a triangle in wave 2 seems indicative of this to me - no large correction in wave 2... but wave 1 was still a little uncertain about how far to run. I can't think of any other acceptable count. Or they are something like abc-x-abc and then a triangle... I prefer simplicity until proven wrong. We have made some more progress on developing a time series model of stock market indices. It is both simple and complex and very elegant. My colleague from the UK - professor of control engineering and environmental science there is also going to download the NDX data and see what he can find - whether the non-linearity I've discovered can be picked up by brute force methods. David

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