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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator

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To: Q. who wrote (84)	7/4/1997 3:01:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	of 167

John; I'v started typing in the data you posted and here is a early sample of how I'v manipulated it so far. ----------------------------------------------- <<SI style ratios > date bull neutrbear S&P bul/br/2w_avg %bull modulated 870724 36 50 14 309.27 2.57 52.5 870731 26 48 26 318.66 1.00 1.79 40.5 the bull % is modulated 870807 56 15 29 323 1.93 1.47 37.5 by uesing the neutral % 870814 45 35 20 333.99 2.25 2.09 46.5 below note the 60.5% bulls 870821 66 28 6 335.98 11.00 6.63 60.5 note the bull/bear ratio 870828 52 18 30 323.04 1.73 6.37 36.5 note above was the high 870904 42 14 41 316.7 1.02 1.38 22.5 870911 50 23 11 321.98 4.55 2.78 39.5 870918 60 29 11 314.86 5.45 5.00 55.5 note the 55.5 does send things 870925 53 17 30 320.16 1.77 3.61 36.5 up for just a bit BUT it comes 871002 44 26 30 328.07 1.47 1.62 36.5 after unusual lows, hence a 871009 46 39 15 311.07 3.07 2.27 51.5 flat arbitrary % could be 871016 37 30 33 282.7 1.12 2.09 33.5 miss leading. The trick 871023 39 30 31 248.22 1.26 1.19 35.5 would be to introduce a 871030 44 23 33 251.79 1.33 1.30 33.5 second catalyst..ie compare 871106 47 31 22 250.41 2.14 1.73 44.5 the currant one with the 871113 31 41 28 245.64 1.11 1.62 38.5 with 2 weeks prior and +or- it 871120 39 42 19 242 2.05 1.58 47.5 note how modulating the bull % 871127 27 46 27 240.32 1.00 1.53 39.5 gives a more defining picture 871204 25 33 42 223.92 0.60 0.80 24.5 <<<low reached>>> 871211 23 45 32 235.32 0.72 0.66 34.5 modulaton is done by mean avg. 871218 33 40 27 245.16 1.22 0.97 39.5 of neutrals subtraced from current 871224 28 52 20 247.08 1.40 1.31 46.5 and added to the bull % 880108 34 46 20 243.4 1.70 1.55 46.5 hence a negitive will reduce 880115 34 40 26 252.05 1.31 1.50 40.5 and a positive will increas --------------------- sorry it don't copy in so good. Jim

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