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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: Venkie who wrote (6206)2/14/2002 9:44:45 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (4) of 13815
 
it is all about direction, not amount
I recently talked to a friend who is worth $3M
he lost over $1M since 2000
he is soured on investing, soured on spending
so now all his investing positions are tiny

"so much money in the world" is an incredibly meaningless comment
where is IT going?
where will its direction continue?
what are the traps?

another friend used to receive $80k annual Jan bonus
this year is 1/4 of that
he is reducing spending seriously
esp since yet another kid goes to college next year

another friend saw his IRA reduced by 95% since 2000
he is unwilling to take much of any risks now
and is turning to other ventures which might have less corruption

another friend wisely moved his IRA into bonds in early 2000
then saw all his friends severely damaged
he has no interest to return his IRA into risky positions
not after what he saw with his friends

another two friends lost their jobs
their money is held tight as ticks, not put at risk

another former colleague just saw 8% layoffs in his HQ building
that included a few people we both know and knew
he fears for his job now, and is cutting back spending and investing
he has a one-yr old baby

you sound like a goofyguy who expects a return to Halcyon Days
if you dont adapt to change, you will become part of the landscape

the number of millionaires grows daily
but the number of impoverished grows much faster
that is the reality: deeper division of wealth

ask me what I am wildly optimistic about?
because it is plennnnnty
a new phase has begun, one where if you follow the crowd, you get taken advantage of much more quickly
megatrends will unfold, but they will happen in stealth
and they wont resemble the past

that is my chief complaint with your approach to investing life
what has changed?
recovery on track?
everything on schedule?
clueless, and sheep for slaughter

dont paint me with your naive brushes
do you ever read statistics?
or just gamble and wish and hope and wonder?
you seem like the most emotional trader I ever hear from

let me ask you 2 direct questions:
LAST JUNE DID YOU EXPECT A 2ND HALF RECOVERY?
AND NOW, WHAT IS THE NEXT BIG TREND?
/ jim
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