Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: AC Flyer who wrote (15028)	2/14/2002 2:51:10 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Unemployment Figures Misrepresent Reality Re: The four-week moving average, considered a more reliable measure of employment conditions It is crucial to a clear understanding of the labor markets in the U.S. to realize two factors. 1) Large numbers of workers are now moving off of the unemployment insurance roles because of exhausting benefits. These people are no longer considered part of the "unemployed" pool. Additionally, there is a large pool of "discouraged workers". This Reuters is a distortion of reality, though a very conventional bit of reportage. 2) Large segments of the U.S. labor force are self-employed contract workers, consultants, farm laborers, etc. who simply are disregarded in the unemployment figures. A proper conclusion is that the official "unemployment" figures, though indicative of general trends in the economy, are simply fictions. A better guide to the workings of the economy is the trend in tax revenues for the states, which are very closely tied to economic activity. 44 states currently are in a distressed condition on this parameter and the trend is not our friend looking at projections for the next 2-3 quarters.

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