>> what do you mean by a few? 3? <<
i dunno. two or three. i've been saying two or three years for almost a year now. i have previously stated that i think many commodities will have a dramatic move up around 2004. of course no one can pinpoint anything for sure, but that is my opinion. so i think 2003 and 2004 could be very nice years for gold. that should be enough to call me bullish, even though i think gold could drop in the near-term. the best way for me to quantify my stance would be to say that if you have x amount of dollars you want to invest in gold, put say 25% in now, but keep some ready for a decline. i'm not convinced gold is done going down, i think this might be a headfake rally.
>> do you mean “dot-bombs” that where truly a bubble like the bowling stocks of the late 60’s and will fade away into a chapter in some text book? <<
i don't just mean a few dot coms. i think most tech stocks were bubble stocks in the last several years, including well-known large caps like msft, csco, jdsu, jnpr, brcm, etc. so yes, i am saying i would rather invest in gold or gold stocks than msft, ge, csco, etc. that doesn't mean gold can't go down, i just think a few years out you will do much better in natural resource stocks such as gold than new economy stocks. make that any stock trading at an historically high pe. that could include some in the dow and many in the s&p.
i'm just not bullish on stocks period. now of course some stocks are related to natural resources but i think you can tell that i'm not referring to those. |
