i have to disagree with "any day now". dimethaid and "traditional" cycle times just haven't gone together. any day now used to be the HC call, until they rejected us a 2nd time. "eve of commercialization" was a fortnight. the fact that dimethaid is throwing old pennsaid in the trash means that even with their best possible planning and intentions, they really have no clue when it comes to time frames. neither do we.
the more appropriate phrase would be perhaps "any month now" and unfortunately it has been more correct to say "any year now". everything was supposed to have happened by november, and i think it was september before that.
when did wf-10 phase 3 trial end, july ? it's 6 months later. i understand all we've been told that has happened to cause that delay, but the bottom line is that the focus of both dimethaid and oxochemie during all transition would have been to ensure that wf-10 timeline not be impacted.
it's a good thing more analysts don't cover dimethaid because then they would be constantly angered by the missed timeline projections, and then they would have to keep downgrading us to a neutral from a buy.
in fact, it would disappoint me but no longer suprise me if neither pennsaid nor wf-10 were approved in 2002. i've lost track, are we now almost 4 years since u.s. submission? in the u.s. the pharmaceutical industry spent $177 million in 1999 and 2000, which makes them #1, $50 million more than the #2 industry (insurance). they employ 625 lobbyists , more people than there are members of congress. and i'm guessing that none are employed by dimethaid. so if you were the one making celebrex or vioxx, wouldn't you be spending money to try to delay pennsaid's approval ? and then in england where we can't get $30k monthly sales coming up on our 1 year anniversary...it *feels* like a non-event. foolish me thought we'd be hitting 1/2 million dollars a month by now.
all that being said, if i had the money i would double my position today. when u.s. does approve i think it will be like a game of musical chairs, you will have had to purchase your shares before the music stopped. although i'd love to see approval tomorrow, it could be a much longer wait than anyone on this forum expects. now i just hope that some other company doesn't come along and kick our ass while we wait.
until then maybe someone can figure out which garbage dumpster is receiving the expiring pennsaid.
p.s. talked to renny ho and he said everyone at dimethaid was totally upbeat and very excited. |
