| wave -- I don't resent your pessimistic comments. You have a right to your opinions, you may even be right, and the debate is worthwhile. At least you're not nasty, which is more than I can say for some people. However, it's easy to be pessimistic in a down market. I don't think 1x or 3g or whatever will take off until there is one or more applications that the consumer finds so compelling that, basically, no one will choose to live without -- like the cell phone itself, or e-mail -- i.e., the "killer app." My bet is that GPS may well be that killer app for the consumer: if you have a choice of a phone that can tell emergency services where you are within 10 meters, or a phone that cannot do so, you will buy the GPS phone. May or may not be that big, but I think it will be big. In the long term -- i.e., 3-4 years out -- you will almost certainly be wrong. But where we go in between now and then, I don't know. |
