Trade positions I'm taking home work the weekend .....
First, my weekend theory. What I take home on the weekend has much to do with risk/reward. With the weakness that we saw today and the higher volume we saw yesterday and today, I reason the the risk/reward favors taking most of my positions home. I don't see anything that could happen that will move this market positive by Tuesday but with the world we live in today many things can happen to move the market down by Tuesday.
Positions and comments:
AU- Profit. Gold stock that I will hold. Today's weaker gold activity could be related to the earlier closing for the holiday. Easy to move gold on low volume.
GOLD- Profit. Same as AU. As far as gold stocks are concerned I believe these two have reasonable valuations and strong growth rates. That said, "it's the price of gold, stupid".
BRCM-Short- Profit. Going to be looking at charts to set new stops on all positions this week. BRCM is being hit on two fronts. First, their industry is weak. Second, talk of competition from INTC.
QLGC-Short-Profit- Just seemed like it was a good short and ready.
EMLX-Short-Profit- Mentioned on several boards. Very overvalued. Better position than QLGC imo.
HD- short- Breakeven. With consumer confidence lower and retail being so strong, this is a bet that retail will start to see weakness.
CPN-Long- Loss. I lied earlier. I did not sell all of my CPN. I set a stop and thought for sure it would be taken out at the time I posted. Lower volume today.
AMT- Long- loss. Stopped out earlier this week but got back in today. I was impressed that it held as well as it did and the volume was light as compared to ealier this week. Deutsche Bank came out today and supported them saying that after an "extensive review" they still liked the wireless tower group. This one I should get out of. In this case, "it's the wireless industry, stupid." If I don't see a quick profit next week I'm getting out. I have some shares in my retirement account because I think it is a good long term hold.
PMCS- Short- Profit. I'm such a pig for holding this one through it's ups and downs. I want to see teens on this one...low teens. Very high valuation for acomapny that has lost more than half of it's topline growth.
AMAT- Short- Loss. Valuation thing again. SOX took a hit today and I think AMAT will follow. Experience tells me not to get to impatient with AMAT.
KLAC-Short-Loss. In and out and back in on this one. But showing an overall loss although I have a profit on current shares.
MDC-Short- Profit. This company came out with earnings in early January and said affirmed this quarter although new orders were way down. I guess they would know better than me if they could but their confidence appeared suspect after I read the report. Purchase mortgage apps are down and the builders optimism is waning.
TOL- Short- Breakeven. New position at close tonight. BZH came out near the close and raised guidance for the year. Now how in the hell can they do that in this economy that we are in.
PTEN-Long- profit. Oil sector. Was looking to add something here but never did. OSX appeared to strengthen this week. I trade out of three accounts. One account I tend to let my positions run longer. PTEN and APA are in that account along with AU and GOLD. CPN is in there. The other two accounts I trade mostly around tech and that's were I daytrade.
APA- Long-profit. Same as PTEN.
DE-Long-loss.
COF- short- profit. Mike's pick. Good play on credit issues.
CELL-long-breakeven. P.O.S stock that caught my eye. Small position that I'm holding for fun.
Miscellaneous small positions (short) that I'm hanging on to CNXT, JNPR, TUNE, CIEN, YHOO. These were all shorted in December and early January that I put in a separate account that I'm waiting for daytrade restrictions to be lifted on. Thought I would let them run to see how they would do. I was losing so much on whipsaws that i thought I would let some "bubbles" ride and see what happens. Just put some ELN Long in there at $15. I covered a TER short to buy ELN. This account is doing well and I don't hardly touch it. Maybe that says something in itself.LOL!
This is all off the top of my head. I may have missed something. Just wanted to share what I'm looking at and some thoughts. I think we are at a point in the bear market where it is dangerous to be very long.
Joe |
