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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: JohnM who wrote (18941)2/16/2002 12:01:06 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Neither of us, of course, have any data here. Would be interesting to see what's out there. My guess is everyone's polling these issues right now; that nothing will happen before the 02 elections; and once they are past, it will be too close to the 04 elections.

We're both just reading the tea leaves, obviously. Bush may be polling but I really don't believe his Iraq policy will be poll-driven; the concern about Saddam's nukes is real enough. And if we we wait 'til 04, he will probably have them.

It's also important that Bush II lacks the legitimacy as well.

Imho that's a complete misreading. George W. Bush is the only President we got. James Carville was asked recently if he supported Bush's foreign policy, and when he replied in the affirmative, the interviewer sounded surprised. Carville said, "Listen, we got a team in the field here. It's Team USA that I'm supporting. We'll worry about replacing the coach when his contract's up."

I think Carville's take is the more accurate one, and will certainly be so for any war that is reasonably quick and victorious. A "quickly unpopular war" is practically a contradiction in terms; wars need to become costly quagmires to become unpopular.

To me, the guy to watch is Powell. The more hawkish he sounds, the more we'll know what the program is.
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