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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: orkrious who wrote (30513)2/16/2002 8:28:27 AM
From: exp  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
ORK: as you know I am bearish, yet I believe there WILL be an economic recovery this year, albeit weaker than anticipated. This alone is sufficient IMO to generate a rally of some sort during the seasonally strong March-May period. The key economic numbers to watch are: GDP, capacity utilization, industrial production, and average hours worked along with average hourly compensation. We are probably just 1 month away from capacity util and industrial prod showing a gain (which would be a change in the current downtrend for these two). All this is not guaranteed of course, given potential major problems with Japan and JPM, but is highly likely. All this does NOT mean I will go long before I feel that a move up is in the cards judging from sentiment indicators, chart supports and the like. In fact, it really makes no difference to me if there is a Spring rally or not as I will play whichever side is more promising. Also, as things get worse Sept lows retest becomes more likely in the Summer-Fall period.
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