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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: mishedlo who wrote (30529)2/16/2002 2:45:56 PM
From: shoreco  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
mishedlo, How much weight are you putting into your scenario.

I give you credit, because you do have their little game figured out, but I feel your putting too much into the open interest in the QQQ March puts.

The reason I say this is. I'm looking at the 3 largest open interest and this is what I see.

The action for the 40's has been heavy since December, but they have been stuck in a range of between $2 and $4, so by no means is anyone making a killing on these. current $4.30

The action for the 37's is more recent. They picked up the volume near the end of January, but the average range has been between $1.35 and $2.15, so again no ones getting rich here either. current $2.10

The action for the 35's has been active since mid-January and the average range has been between $0.60 and $1.15. current $1.10

So here's another side of that open interest. If the QQQ ended March expiration @$35 there would only be one winner out of the examples above and that would be the 40's, and even then it would only be a real winner for the ones who bought at the bottom of that range.

Now take a look at the open interest in the calls. All I see is a bunch of losers so why would they want to open up a casket full of dead trades.

I understand we're over weighted in March puts but that's where that damn premium thing kills the option players.

Oh, and about that high P/C ratio. I just took a look at last weeks action and it was full of day trades. The open interest basically stayed where it was.

The P/C ratio is based on volume only.

EOM
Shoreco

PS
I really don't think this market can sustain a rally in Tech, although look for the Dow manipulated 30 to off-set the blood shed.
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