Re: I think Intel can produce and sell more Yamhill cpus in 1 quarter than AMD can produce and sell hammer cpus in 1 year.
It depends on the year. Giving yamhill a full green light instantly kills any hopes for Itanium success - they won't make that particular move lightly, though the recent news about Yamhill may indicate that Madison isn't much of an improvement on McKinley. Once they decide to kill off Itanium, they need a lot more than just the yamhill chip. They also need to get chipsets designed and tested, and motherboards designed and tested. That's probably around 1H 2003 - when Clawhammer will be moving to .09 and 64mm2. At that size, Dresden should be good for close to 16 million Hammers per quarter, and by then AMD will have well established platforms to take those chips - including mobile platforms. If UMC is suppling 4 million Durons per quarter at the same time, we would likely see Intel shipping 15 million Prescott P4s, 10 million Northwood Celerons, and no more than 10 million Yamhills. The platform would just be too new for much more than that.
2H 2003 and 2004, Intel would match, then exceed AMD's run rate, unless they expanded Dresden (which it was designed for). By 2005, the new joint venture FAB is scheduled to be able to ship 50,000,000 Hammers per quarter.
The Itanium line, of course, would be all but dead at that point.
Intel could lose the ball game, here. It's no wonder they're scrambling to replace Itanic. But, as we've seen from P4, and Itanium, it takes Intel a long, long, time to bring a new platform to market. |
