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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (30543)2/16/2002 5:35:50 PM
From: exp  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
ZEEV, LARRY: I'm VERY confused. If DOW (and likely SPX) go below Sep 01 lows how can we talk about "the end of this bear market phase" or even "a new bull market"? What's the definition of a bull/bear market anyhow - I cannot come with up one that's logical and commonly accepted. Doesn't it depend SOLELY on the time horizon, be it 1 , 2, 5, or 10 years? I am not disputing anyone's assertions just trying to understand the thinking. Nikkei, for example, is a "secular bear market" since 1989. Still, every 2 years there are rallies of some 30-40% lasting several months. Are these bull markets? Nasdaq was probably in a "secular bull market" from 1978 to 2000 as the trend was up all that time. Yet Nasdaq was hit 323 in 10/90 almost exactly the same as the level in early 83. So the trend was up for 7.5 years yet longs made NO money over this time (in fact lost money when accounting for inflation)! (see below)
stockcharts.com
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