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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: John Madarasz who wrote (31406)2/16/2002 6:09:00 PM
From: sun-tzu  Read Replies (3) of 209892
 
your signals are canceling each other out. the AAII is high and the rydex bear fund is high. while that doesn't give a direction, it does distinctly argue against any type of tank.

i've been playing the range which has been successful. pretty soon we'll get to the bottom, probably establish a new low, and be set to rally again. the thing is, the next rally would arrive in a distinctly bullish seasonal period...namely march. this is the basis of my supposition that the market will break the downtrend in the next rally.

of course that, imo, will be the ultimate fakeout, setting up a classic decline through the late spring and entire summer into september. this not only corresponds to extremely bearish seasonality, but also will occur during a time past any type of inventory upramp.

corporate america will have to prove the economy is back at the worst period for equities. i don't think they will be successful.

that's how i'm playing, subject to change of course if other event intervene.
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