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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (15066)2/16/2002 9:36:51 PM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Hi John:

Nice chart. It could be argued that the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq are back in the channel, so to speak.

Many people are troubled by high P/Es. One read of this "problem" is that stock prices have much further to fall before the bear market can end.

My point of view - I don't claim it as a certainty or as manifest destiny - is that P/Es are high because: 1) earnings have been extraordinarily depressed by "kitchen sink" writeoffs; 2) the market is anticipating a strong profit recovery, and; 3) we are not in a primary bear market, but have experienced a severe correction in a bull market, with investor psychology still strongly oriented towards equities.

That said, there is plenty of room for good stockpickers and traders to make money both long and short. Nevertheless, I am comfortable with my LTBH long positions.
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