Re: Where did this come from? ... The desktop Clawhammer will not begin migrating to 90nm until H1 2004
Desktop CPUs Q1'02 Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 H1'03 H2'03 2004 2005
ClawHammerS ?
(0.065, SOI, 40mm2)
ClawHammer
(0.09, SOI, 64mm2) M4000 M4400 ?
ClawHammer
(0.13, SOI, 80mm2) M3400
ThoroughbredS
(0.09, SOI, 50mm2) >2800+
Barton
(0.13, SOI) 2800+
Thoroughbred
(0.13, 80mm2, 1.6V) 2200+ 2600+
Palomino
(0.18, 129mm2, 1.75V) 2000+
Appaloosa
(0.13), 266Mhz FSB 1.5Ghz 1800+ 2000+
Morgan
(0.13), 200Mhz FSB 1.4Ghz http://www.vr-zone.com/#2115 AMD Desktop Roadmap
Re: The key is whether AMD's 50 million units per quarter capacity drives Intel to selling IA64 at unsustainably low prices to get it onto the corporate desktop. AMD has made a profit before with no processor priced over $150, and can probably do so with a 40mm2 Clawhammer. With half of a single 300mm fab and Clawhammer at 40mm2, AMD might even be able to make a profit while driving the price of the fastest speed grade Clawhammer to under $100. If Intel loses their ability to demand a premium for their processors, and is reduced to a combined total of IA64 and x86 processors equal to the number of Clawhammer units AMD is then selling, can they make a profit while maintaining four 300mm fabs?
Well said. This is not the most likely outcome, but its probability is well above zero. Intel has committed itself to a very high cost structure, which it may have trouble supporting during the coming battle for the 64-bit "node." |
