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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 180.74-0.1%Nov 3 3:59 PM EST
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To: David E. Taylor who wrote (19181)2/17/2002 12:54:30 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (2) of 196428
 
David,

sometimes simple math is adequate.

$1 trillion, be it possibly EU instead of US$, is still a lot of money.

Let us assume there are going to be 100 million 3G UMTS subs average for the next 10 years, STARTING RIGHT NOW, which we know is far above reality. $1 trillion is $100 billion per year. With 100 million subs, that is $1,000 ARPU per annum just to meet that estimate.

I remember there was a guy named Michael who said Dell will grow at 70% indefinitely. I also remember a John Chambers who thinks CSCO get grow at 50% bottom line and 30% top line indefinitely.

UMTS may have both of them beat, by a huge margin, with the wildest promises.

Ramsey
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