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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 215.00+0.7%Dec 22 3:59 PM EST

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To: Charles Gryba who wrote (71779)2/17/2002 6:54:26 PM
From: hmalyRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Charles Re.... Big die theory works <<<<<<<

It may have worked in the past, at a time cpu manufacturers were pressed to get a lot of performance benefits on a chip . However with ever reduced processing sizes, the huge die will be a thing of the past. What is important right now is that XP outperforms P4 ghz to ghz, by about 20%; even with a 20% smaller die. And when AMD downsizes, AMD will have an 35% smaller die. The big die only works if you can improve performance enough to justify it. Porsch can demand big bucks, because there is a performance advantage over the average Chev. However Chev sells 3 million models worldwide, while Porsh might have sales of 250,000.(Just guessing) Intel hopes to keep a 4-1 sales advantage with a 80% pricing premium, and a 20% performance disadvantage. History is replete with manufacturers who have become inefficient and history shortly thereafter.

A second part of the theory was that Intel, with its superior processing skills and money, was able to control the opposition. Unfortunately for Intel; AMD's Dresden fab was named fab of the yr. and the AMD's copper process was one of the world's best. And AMD has been able to line up enough processing capacity, on the cheap, to produce 1 1/2 times the worlds total current demand, by 2006. Its time to give the big die theory a proper burial, and start with a new one.
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