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Microcap & Penny Stocks : IMMM ( I'm Mad Monk)
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To: M. M. Jones who wrote (1308)7/5/1997 9:03:00 AM
From: Michael T Currie   of 1480
 
The first thing that you must do is define your criteria and definition of 'success'. Let's look at the overall industry statistics. Chance of finding commercial amounts of hydrocarbons in a rank wildcat: approx. 1 in 8. Chance of same in an appraisal situation: approx. 1 in 2. Development drilling: 3 in 4. These are averages worldwide and should be altered for local circumstances. For example, I have worked in the Gulf of Mexico, West of Shetlands, and offshore Angola, where direct hydrocarbon indicators ('bright spots') are evident on seismic data. In these cases, development success rates are above 90%. EM Sounder is being billed as a direct hydrocarbon detector. Perhaps we can assume that we should see similar sorts of improved well locations. Under this scenario, I would estimate that a minimum of twenty wells in the same area would be necessary to firmly establish or disprove that expected additional 20% (75% vs. 90% success) improvement.

Without knowing the details of the available data, I believe that I will decline to estimate a probability of success for the technology.

Regards,

Mike

Newsflash: Tea bags dumped over the side of Tower Bridge. Brits very upset with me. Good thing that I used PG Tips (sort of the equivalent of Lipton). If they had been Earl Grey variety, I would be in the Tower of London now.
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