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Strategies & Market Trends : Dow Dogs, Foolish Four and other market-beating strategies

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To: Paul Shread who started this subject	2/18/2002 12:38:11 AM
From: llackey	Read Replies (1) of 82

Benchmark Investing aka Trouncing the Dow These are the current top picks for the S&P MidCap 400. Sorry about the formatting, I'm working on getting it fixed for this board. Price 10Yr 10Yr Price/ 5Yr 5Yr Price/ 04-06 04-06 EPS Buffett Ticker Update 2/15 Down Up 10Y Dn Down Up 5Y Dwn Down Up Growth Value Indust. Name BRL 1/25 64.58 105.00 247.08 -38% 84.41 205.57 -23% 133.44 314.00 70% 98.88 DRUG Barr Laboratories TDS 1/4 84.15 125.39 206.16 -33% N/A N/A N/A 203.83 335.12 13% 62.50 TELESERV Telephone & Data Systems PHSY 12/28 15.82 22.78 52.29 -31% 22.19 58.45 -29% 31.92 73.27 56% 71.83 MEDSERV PacifiCare Health Sys TSN 2/8 12.65 17.94 27.76 -29% 20.62 33.42 -39% 35.83 55.44 164% 21.46 FOODPROC Tyson Foods SRP 2/15 15.36 21.63 28.60 -29% 27.42 39.17 -44% 25.96 34.32 2633% -27.99 UTILWEST Sierra Pacific Resources (New) UCU 1/4 23.12 31.71 44.36 -27% 27.69 43.10 -17% 43.14 60.35 23% 73.69 UTILCENT UtiliCorp United IVX 1/25 17.5 23.56 53.11 -26% 23.57 61.85 -26% 37.89 85.41 20% 23.32 DRUG IVAX Corp. WEC 1/4 23.77 31.93 40.70 -26% 34.42 46.85 -31% 37.01 47.17 22% 0.00 UTILCENT Wisconsin Energy BKS 2/15 29.5 38.00 74.56 -22% 30.07 64.66 -2% 66.09 129.67 88% N/A RETAILSP Barnes & Noble PAS 2/8 12.64 15.25 21.94 -17% 19.59 31.14 -35% 19.02 27.38 64% 27.99 BEVERAGE PepsiAmericas, Inc. ETS 1/18 4.5 5.41 13.70 -17% 10.63 44.35 -58% 7.98 20.19 -22% 9.33 COMPUTER Enterasys Networks OHP 12/28 40.06 48.09 113.65 -17% N/A N/A N/A 56.77 134.18 6% 63.43 MEDSERV Oxford Health Plans LNT 1/4 29.2 34.33 42.80 -15% 34.80 45.09 -16% 37.45 46.68 21% 0.93 UTILCENT Alliant Energy BTH 1/11 21.28 24.75 43.54 -14% 22.25 37.51 -4% 33.06 58.15 2% 41.04 HOUSEPRD Blyth Inc. OCR 1/4 22.54 25.80 51.32 -13% 22.94 46.76 -2% 40.21 79.96 35% 29.85 DRUGSTOR Omnicare, Inc. CREE 1/18 15.35 17.48 67.11 -12% 13.61 53.26 13% 61.11 234.64 -28% 3.73 SEMICOND Cree Inc. YRK 2/1 37.63 42.10 63.47 -11% 34.03 58.92 11% 68.36 103.05 12% 66.23 MACHINE York International PSD 2/15 21.2 23.14 30.57 -8% 24.31 33.89 -13% 27.26 36.01 73% 28.92 UTILWEST Puget Energy, Inc. (Hldg. Co.) GLT 1/11 15.68 17.03 25.42 -8% 14.39 22.74 9% 22.61 33.75 15% 21.46 PAPER Glatfelter PRGO 1/25 11 11.62 22.94 -5% 11.30 22.02 -3% 19.46 38.42 -5% 11.19 DRUG Perrigo Co. GSB 1/25 30.5 31.62 63.04 -4% 29.10 60.29 5% 40.40 80.53 21% N/A THRIFT Golden State Bancorp GXP 1/4 25.5 26.38 32.56 -3% 27.63 33.97 -8% 30.82 38.04 19% 57.84 UTILCENT Great Plains Energy Inc. SSSS 2/1 17.18 17.63 33.67 -3% 17.86 39.46 -4% 52.42 100.07 -12% 15.86 MACHINE Stewart & Stevenson Services AIN 2/1 25.02 25.55 40.26 -2% 20.00 33.78 25% 35.38 55.75 18% 37.31 MACHINE Albany International Ticker, Industry & Name are pretty self explanatory. Update is the date of the last data update from Valueline. Fresher data is always better. Price (date) is the 4:00PM closing price of the stock on the date indicated. 10 Yr Down is the 10 year downside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify. 10 Yr Up is the 10 year upside price. Both upside and downside are calculated using method outlined in Trouncing The Dow book and BI website. Price/10Y Dn is the price divided by the 10 Yr downside expressed as a percentage. 5Yr Down is the 5 year downside price. The company must have at least 4 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify. 5Yr Up is the 5 year upside price. Based on Ken Lee's (Dowbuys) findings that the 5 year method works as well as the 10 yr method and also tends to pick more stocks during long bull markets. Price/5Y Dn is the price divided by the 5 Yr downside expressed as a percentage. 04-06 Down is the 2004-2006 downside price which is calculated using the projections of Book Value and ROE for 2004-2006. After 1/1/2002, this will be updated to 2005-2007. 04-06 Up is the 2004-2006 upside price. EPS Growth is the projected growth in EPS for the next 4 quarters versus the last four reported quarters. I depart from the normal TTD method which is to use the VL sheet figures. I use the latest EPS data from the VL spreadsheet which is updated as soon as new earnings are reported. Buffett Value is the "discounted cashflow valuation" that Buffett uses as a quick and dirty intrinsic value calculation. This is discussed on pages 77-78 of Trouncing the Dow. Benchmark Investing values for the Dow can be found at www.benchmarkinvesting.com. - Lee

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