SO; Before April 4, 2000 your chart structure analysis was...
April 2nd..."But based on the close last month and the last minute damage to the chip stocks last week. There is no doubt that we are about to take another step lower across the board."
April 3rd..."I wouldn't be long at this stage. Stocks are breaking into 52 wk lows across the board. The VIX is set for an even bigger push up. While the DOW, based off some simple measuring techniques, has a good shot at 7900 THIS MONTH!"
Before the September lift off your wrote...
Sept 7th..."That downward pressure will not abate until you see some sort of significant reversal that will most likely come on the heels of some sort of flush on extreme negative sentiment and then turn??? Who knows but to have some kind of significant rally you have to have the structure in place to sustain a long time move. That structure in not in place for a whole bunch of stocks across the board."
I believe the market was being set up by the big boyz to rally off the Sept 10th low had it not been for the terrorist attack on 9/11. Following the attack, the big boyz had no choice, but to take the market down. However, the boyz used the price action induced selling to ACCUMULATE more inventory albeit unplanned, turning lemons into lemonade.
Observance of price, volume and time/sales of key issues made 9/21 a fairly obvious pivot date call if certain price/volume actions took place and they did...http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=185573 At any rate, a low was in place within five trading days for the NYA and COMPX once trading resumed after the attack and with in a few weeks both indices rallied above pre 9/11 prices. Trading select issues with a long bias from the early stages of that rally proved to be one of the most profitable periods ever for me.
You reappeared on SI with market structure reads proclaiming more down just before the 4/4/01 pivot low, you reappeared on SI with market structure reads proclaiming more down just before the 9/21/01 pivot low. Now once again you've reappeared well into the downturn following the 1/9/02 pivot high proclaiming more down per your chart structure reads.
Of course nothing is 100% in the markets, but I suspect you'll find yourself once again late to the party. If you are not preparing for the next leg up of the rally off the Sept01 pivot low, you're going to be on the wrong side of the next significant move...its all there in the chart structures...gg
Regards,
LG
Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on any one person's views or analysis, especially an anonymous message board poster such as myself. Do your own research and take responsibility for your own investment decisions. |
