DB:
The thread's no fun unless somebody takes up a challenge. When I look at JNPR, I think we can agree it's going down. Question is, what makes you think this puppy will do a double bottom somewhere near here and not just keep going down? When I look at the chart, I see a stock just beginning to get oversold on the indicators:
stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyyay[pd20,2!b10!b25!b50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Lk14!Lb14!Ld20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Pull it out to the weekly and you can see what I mean a bit more clearly. When JNPR plunged down to the 27-28 level in July/August of 2001, it had begun to get oversold but remained oversold (on the weekly) for 4 straight months, on its voyage to $8.90. One could have tried to time a double bottom with the April lows of about $28, and waited half a year just to get out even. If this pattern repeats (and by the way it doesn't have a positive p/e, since it's losing money), I see at least $10.27 of possible downside before we make a bottom. :^)
stockcharts.com[h,a]whclyyay[pd20,2!b10!b25!b50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Lk14!Lb14!Ld20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Now, we're sitting on a low VIX, which means be very careful of going long on any name and we have an "opportunity" at hand with this incomprehensible company. Incomprehensible? Hokay, then tell me in 35 words or less how it proposes to eventually make money, not what it makes but how it intends to make money):
" . . .provider of purpose-built Internet infrastructure solutions that meet the scalability, performance, density and compatibility requirements of rapidly evolving, optically enabled Internet Protocol networks. Unlike conventional routers, originally developed for enterprise applications . . ."
???
If this weekly pattern even remotely repeats, you could very well see a sub $4 JNPR. From there, I agree, a triple or a quadruple would be nice. It'd be a shame to settle for only an 80% gain.
I'm happy to wait and watch on this one, but not holding my breath.
Skeptically,
Kb |
