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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: LTK007 who wrote (30813)2/18/2002 10:04:25 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (5) of 99280
 
Are you looking for a short term bounce this week?
Enough bearishness to spark a bit of a bounce early this week. Semiconductor capital equipment monthly data is out this week. I suspect that it will paint a somewhat bullish picture (since it is Jan data) and traders will probably anticipate this and get long and/or cover shorts.

Right now the market seems to be concerned about another slowdown on the horizon (could just be seasonal).
Dell, Csco, NT did not provide much positive news for the near term and I suspect Intel will "only" reaffirm guidance.

DRAM prices now trading above production cost!
Demand increasing?

If we go lower based upon bad earnings or economic data in the near term, that might be enough for investors to start buying up for the second half rebound....once again.<g>

I am starting to rethink my bearish outlook for the near term. At the very least, the SnP and Dow should do well and maybe we get a bounce on the Naz as well.

There just seems to be too much bearishness. Maybe a rally that lasts a week or so. The data that caught my attention has been the Rydex funds, higher P/C lately, few IPOs, and I think about 9 weeks of outflows from tech funds. A one day rally and maybe we start going in the other direction.

Not certain on this course of action but certainly thinking about going into Tuesday. Maybe going long aggressively (old economy stocks and some tech) with a lot of of hedging (QQQ puts and gold stocks) against a big drop.
...or by tomorrow end up just buying more tech puts and forget about the rest of the plan.<g>

jmho
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