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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: pls418 who wrote (12484)2/19/2002 1:18:18 AM
From: kodiak_bull  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
Steve,

Since I have been converted to the charts, it's not terrifically important to me whether a company makes money or not these days, or whether they make routers, widgets or maxi-pads, but both SI and Yahoo say JNPR is losing money (which gives them a p/e of N/A):

biz.yahoo.com

siliconinvestor.com

Funny thing but I get another "N/A" on p/e for FLEX, again from two sources.

biz.yahoo.com

siliconinvestor.com

I think that makes you "O for 2," but it's not terrifically important. Argue with SI and Yahoo if you wish. If you want to bring up the other name we can check that one and find out that reported sources claim it has/had no earnings either, but it's no big deal.

Like I said, earnings aren't that important to me anymore, since what I really want to know is not GAAP earnings, or pro forma earnings or EBITDA earnings, or earnings including extraordinary gains on minority investments, but rather where the stock is likely to go.

Now Dabummy can hope in his heart that JNPR is about to make a double bottom, and maybe it will in a few days, but that ain't what the chart is saying. This chart is not showing a single sign of bottoming or reversal up to this point.

stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyyay[pd20,2!b50!b200!b25!b10!f][vc60][iut!Lk14!Lb14!Ld20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G

Could it change by close of Tuesday? Sure, it could change by noon on Tuesday, but what I'm saying is it isn't present in this chart. Maybe it's an insider scoop, maybe it's an FA story, but it's not in the chart, not yet.

As for FLEX, about which I know zero, one could only say that the chart is somewhat more "turn aroundish" than JNPR's but ONLY in that it is somewhat more oversold than JNPR's.

stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyyay[pd20,2!b50!b200!b25!b10!f][vc60][iut!Lk14!Lb14!Ld20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G

People here are looking for double and triple bottoms. Helas, hope springs eternal. But think for a moment of all the poor sods who bought LU and Nortel on second and third bottoms which turned out not to be bottoms at all, but merely cliffs on the way down. I myself bought FLC a few years ago (remember FLC??) at 14 on a for sure can't lose double bottom; I sold it at 12 and it finally bottomed in the $5 range. The VIX is 24.09, very very low now(translate, this ain't the time to be making big long bets). Why are people getting so antsy to pony up their money on double and triple bottoms which very well may not hold?

Personally, I don't care what JNPR and FLEX make or don't make (that includes manufactured goods, E as in earnings, or even their pro forma, super massaged numbers for the next 3 quarters). I only care to make a bet with my money when I see something in the charts telling me that the sellers are gone and the buyers are back. Until then, in the words of Kollmnh, I wouldn't even buy these names with YOUR money.

Kb
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