Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 159.42

-1.2%

Jan 16 3:59 PM EST

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (113636)	2/19/2002 10:08:08 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Re : "What's the point ... / LTCM ' When Genius Failed. ' " -- (I may have already said this before ...) When I watched a PBS show (in 2001, I believe) about the collapse of LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) (failure was in 1998) ... The conclusion I drew from the show (Frontline (?)) was not at all the one that the producers of the show were (mindlessly) repeating. My conclusion was : LTCM was absolutely correct in their financial bets : markets CANNOT stay priced for insane "flight to extreme safety" (for example -- the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond priced at a hugely lower yield than the 29-year U.S. Treasury bond) ... forever. But, if someone betting on this is under-margined (another way of saying over-leveraged), then in a "six standard deviation - type event" ... They WILL run out of staying power, and be forced to un-wind positions at wacko prices. Based on some profound soul-searching after watching that episode of "Frontline," I made a pledge to have smaller positions in both my interest rate futures trading, and my bet on Qualcomm (and CDMA) being the undeniable winners in the wireless area. When the 2-year U.S. Treasury notes had their sharpest decline in at least 24 years (in mid-November 2001) (24 years takes us back (I believe) to when "Ryan Labs" began their data base on bond market stuff) ... I sat back, and thought : "If they want to be dumb, let 'em be dumb. I will NOT be squeezed out, because I do not have a huge position." The move in the Treasuries was very quickly reversed. As I have stated previously, it was another example of "a whole move, based on nothing." I am still sitting here waiting for the verdict on everyone pretending Qualcomm (and CDMA) are not huge winners ... Jon.

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