On the retail front, Allan, I have a theory that those stocks aren't going to break until we see a decline in consumer confidence/spending. Since the recession seems not to have gone to the consumer side <g>, until there is evidence of the consumer pulling back, my theory is that the "Consumer Discretionary" sector (for which you can get a bullish percent reading with $BPDISC), will almost be a safe haven. I assume you're looking out to June or so for options, though, and I also notice that the premium on some of these options really isn't so onerous.
The corralary of my theory, of course, is that those puppies will pop like balloons when the time comes. And since there's no predicting when (or even if, I suppose) that will happen, waiting for the perfect moment is, as usual, ill advised. But I'm still trying to be patient. . . no easy task for a Freep.
All the semi puts are real slowpokes these days. The NOVL 40's are up a whopping nickel today with the stock down another buck. The Brocade puts (which I sadly don't own) are doing quite well.
the freep |
