Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (2046)	7/5/1997 2:47:00 PM
From: Stingray	of 94695

I don't plan to fight the tape, just stay out of the way of stampeding sheep. In the meantime I've been reading a few investment books which have various technical indicators for when to buy/sell stock and I'm writing some software to test them out against 24 month data on individual NASDAQ stocks as pulled off NASDAQ's quote page. If I come up with any indicator that gets it right 2/3 of the time or more on my data set I'll let you know. BTW in one of these books I just started reading they say that the most likely days for the market to rise are (a) the two days before a holiday and (b) the first 4 and the last trading day of each month, and that if you were only in the market on those few days and out of it the rest of the year (and had no trading costs) you would make more money than if you were fully invested all year. Part of the theory is that shorts are more likely to cover before a holiday weekend (presumably so they can enjoy the holiday), and also pension contributions come in around the start of the month. I wish I'd had that gem of information at the start of last week, but if there was excessive short covering before the holiday I wouldn't expect that trend to carry over into next week and this is one reason why I am not convinced that last weeks momentum will persist. It would not surprise me if Thursday turned out to be the high for the year but I hope not. I would like to see this market go even higher to set up a truly excellent downward play after the summer. I don't have my bear suit on yet but it is neatly pressed and waiting for the right opportunity.

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