Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN)

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To: Robohogs who wrote (1732)	2/19/2002 3:05:43 PM
From: Harold Engstrom	of 10345

Here is the Yahoo post I was looking for: Let´s look at the numbers. I will add to each asset item a percentage of certainty. The numbers are in millions. I also assume that ELAN will generate 200 million in cash each year and a credit interest rate of zero is applied.(very very conservative assumptions) BTW: when I write `certain´ I mean `secure´ and not `some´. ASSETS as of now Cash..............1663 100%= 1663 Marketable........ 696 80%= 557 Other current..... 496 80%= 397 Intangibles.......2140 0%= 0 Property.......... 401 50%= 200 Investments.... 819 30%= 246 EPIL* assets 800+ 0% = 0 Sum of certain assets........3063 *EPIL is the name for the controversial off-balance sheet `stuff´/QSPEs) I assumed that the EPIL/QSPE assets are worth zilch. That´s not true but I want to show that even if that were the case the debt could be handled hands down. I also assumed that the intangibles were worth zilch in order to show that even if they were I wouldn´t be bothered. LIABILITIES Debt due in 2002 Accounts payable and accrued liab..1063 EPIL debt part 1....................160 notes due 2002.................63 SUM of debt due in 2002......... 1286 3063-1286+200(cash)=............. 1977 certain assets at the end of 2002: 1977 Debt due in 2003: none Certain(secure) assets at the end of 2003 1977 +200(cash)=2177 Debt due in 2004 revolver 325 EPIL debt part 2 450 sum of debt due in 04 775 certain assets at the end of 2004 2177-775+200(cash)= 1602 Debt due in 2005 EPIL debt part 3 390 certain assets at the end of 2005 1602-390+200 (cash) = 1412 Debt due in 2006: none certain assets at the end of 2006 1412 +200(cash)=1612 Debt due in 2007: none certain assets at the end of 2007 1612+200(cash)= 1812 Debt due in 2008: senior notes due 2008: 660 certain assets at the end of 2008 1812-660+ 200(cash)= 1352 The next debt is due in 2018. zero coupon notes 951 That´s far out and serving this debt will be a peace of cake. continued So Elan is no Enron. They have cash generating products Cancel and don´t read the WSJ I don´t read the WSJ anymore A piece of shit has better content than the Wall shit Journal. Bear in mind that my calculation is very conservative.(0% interest on investments, arbitrary write-off of a substantial part of the investments) So the real scenario will most likely look way way better. If you ran the model with only 100 milion average cash generation per year the `certain assets´ figure at the end of 2008 would still be 652. And please check out ÉLAN´s FAQ addressing cash and debt: elan.com And btw Élan hasn´t been hiding the QSPEs messages.yahoo.com; mid=41784

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