Hi Stingray,
Barron's forecast in this post...
Emotionally, I am on your side. Intellectually, the stampede is to the upside and while there are sell flags a flying, the "buy the dippers" will only turn any route into a reason for shoving more money at the beast.
Stephen Leeb's recent mailing says, "Greenspan won't DARE stop inflation now!" And he goes on to say that slamming on the breaks will not only derail the train, it will blow the economy...
So that old buzzard, AG, is caught between a rock and a hard place and is certainly bound to go down in history as the man who caused the crash of 97-98. HE WAS RIGHT TO TIGHTEN RATES EARLIER THIS YEAR AND SHOULD HAVE KEPT IT UP... But the old geeze blinked and the markets have rolled right over him. RIP.
Now before you go get yourself caught in a mega short squeeze play... watch closely. I am planning on bidding 3/4 for 70 GE puts on Monday since I have a strong sell on that stock and an indicator I have says it should get to 71 1/2 on Monday or Tuesday the latest. But this kid is out by the end of the week cause ANYTHING can happen.
BARRON'S FORECAST:
- ODDLOTS say a down week (but not a crash, darn it).
- Most actives are getting rangy... Friady was the only day any good... expect strength toward the end of the week.
- Sentiment... down a bit but still high.
- OPTIONS raitos, not available from Barron's this week. However, IBD had them: still in the excessive area with OI-Equity Calls/OI-Index Puts over 6 - the highest I have ever seen it.
We are definitely in a dead zone... if you invest the long side and the thinkable happens (crash) you are dead. If you invest the short side and the unthinkable happens (more strong upside) you are dead. SO BE CAREFUL.
My summary: Up strongly Monday, a pause, second thoughts by Wednesday, recovery from the sell-off Friday. NO GUARANTEES!
Regards,
Bill
PS And if you find an indicator that is right 95% of the time, let ME know, will ya huh? Please? |
