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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: t2 who wrote (31055)2/19/2002 6:07:57 PM
From: DlphcOracl  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
New Vision: I just don't see it.

Just as I thought you were a bit too bullish earlier in the year, I think you have overcompensated and are now too bearish. Nasdaq 1300?? No way. All of the economic data show that there is shows improvement, slight as it is, not worsening. Only question now is of valuation -- the SOX needs to correct a bit more. However, the EXTREME pessimism of Sept. 2001 was triggered by a rare exogenous event. Additionally, the economy is in better shape than it was six months ago. I doubt we repeat Sept. 2001 and believe that those lows will hold.

For now, the worst I see is Nasdaq 1640-1650. Only way we go below this later this year is if the economic data suggests a "double-dip", a recurrence of the recession OR
if Greenspam and the Fed begin raising interest rates. However, with the recovery so tentative and fragile, I believe there is zero chance of that.

Just my thoughts.

P.S. I started averaging into the QQQ's and will continue averaging in if we go down further.
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